The "UFO phenomenon," which is here taken to comprise those events that lead to reports of "unidentified flying objects," is of widespread public interest but elicits comparatively little interest from most scientists, who--to judge from their public statements--perceive the study of this phenomenon not only as unproductive but also as not respectable. An editorial in Science (Abelson, 1974) refers to unidentified flying objects in a discussion of "pseudoscience," which is termed an "intellectual poison." On the other hand, a survey of members of the American Astronomical Society, which permitted members to express opinions under the cloak of anonymity, indicates that scientists are probably more interested in and more open-minded towards this subject than one would judge from their public statements (Sturrock, 1977).
The history of the UFO phenomenon in the United States is long and complex. Jacobs (1975) has given a comprehensive account of this history up to 1973 in his book UFO Controversy in America. This book presents a detailed account of the origin of the Colorado UFO Project, of which the following is a very brief encapsulation.
The United States Air Force carried out three consecutive studies of the UFO phenomenon over a 22-year period: Project Sign, from 1947 to 1948; Project Grudge from 1948 to 1952; and Project Blue Book from 1952 to 1969. Although these studies and their reports were initially classified, it appears that all reports (except Blue Book Special Report No. 13, if it ever existed) have now been declassified and are publicly available. The Air Force organized an "Ad Hoc Committee to Review Project Blue Book," and this committee met in February 1966. Its members were Brian O'Brien (chairman), Launor Carter, Jesse Orlansky, Richard Porter, Carl Sagan, and Willis A. Ware. This committee recommended that the Air Force negotiate contracts "with a few selected universities to provide selected teams to investigate promptly and in depth certain selected sightings of UFOs." This recommendation led eventually (in October 1966) to an Air Force contract to the University of Colorado. The director was Professor Edward U. Condon, a very distinguished physicist and a man of strong and independent character.
Work on this contract was carried out over a two-year period with a substantial scientific staff. Since this study is the only unclassified investigation n1But see the "Postscript" section of this present analysis. of the UFO phenomenon carried out by an established scientific organization under contract to a U.S. federal agency, the report of this study (Condon & Gillmor 1968; usually referred to as the "Condon Report") constitutes a landmark in the study of the UFO phenomenon, to which all later work must be referred. For instance, any review of the UFO phenomenon to be published in one of the mainstream scientific journals must begin with a discussion of the Condon Report (CR) explaining where and why the author disagrees with the findings of that report. Even more important, any proposal to the Air Force or any other federal agency, requesting funds for UFO research, must begin by explaining why the Condon Report is not to be accepted as the last word on the problem.
There has, in fact, been considerable development in UFO research since the Colorado Project: at that time, APRO (Aerial Phenomena Research Organization) and NICAP (National Investigations Committee for Aerial Phenomena) were in existence. Since that time, MUFON (Mutual UFO Network) has emerged as an even larger organization for UFO research; CUFOS (Center for UFO Studies) has been founded by J. Allen Hynek; and CNES (Centre Nationale Atudes Spatiale, the French equivalent of NASA) has set up a small group (GEPAN: Group d'Étude des Phénomèmes Aérospatiaux Non-Identifiés) with the charge of studying UFO reports, most of which are channeled to GEPAN by the gendarmerie according to a well-defined and well-functioning procedure.
Two studies that were initially classified but have since been declassified deserve special mention. One of these was conducted by a panel comprising Luis Alvarez, Lloyd Berkner, Samuel A. Goudsmit, Thornton Page, and H. P. Robertson (chairman), with Frederic C. Durant and J. Allen Hynek serving as associate members. This panel was convened by the Central Intelligence Agency for a period of five days in 1953 to consider the question whether UFOs constitute a threat to national defense. The panel concluded that there was "no evidence that the phenomena indicate a need for the revision of current scientific concepts" and that "the evidence . . . shows no indication that these phenomena constitute a direct physical threat to national security" (Jacobs, 1975).
The other study was conducted by the Battelle Memorial Institute, under contract to the Air Force, from 1951 to 1953. It was primarily a statistical analysis of the conditions and characteristics of UFO reports, but it also included transcripts of several notable sightings. The report of this study (Blue Book Special Report No. 14), which was initially classified but subsequently released, contains a wealth of information and arrives at the notable conclusion that the more complete the data and the better the report, the more likely it was that the report would remain unidentified (Jacobs, 1975).
The Condon Report is not a committee report: it is not a document signed by a number of scientists, each making his own appraisal but coming--as a group--to a common position and recommendation. It is a project report, containing contributions from the scientific staff and an overview by the project director. This fact is crucial and helps one to understand the contents of the report.
Section n2Sections of the Condon Report are referred to as "Section CR I," etc., to distinguish them from sections of the present article. Page references to the Condon Report are denoted by the prefix "CR." CR I and CR II, the "Conclusions and Recommendations" and the "Summary of the Study," are written by Condon himself. Condon's summary is followed by six summaries of different aspects of the research, written by staff members, together with a summary of opinion polls conducted by the American Institute of Public Opinion, more familiarly known as the Gallup Poll. The staff summaries are followed by 240 pages of case studies. The entire report, with supplementary and peripheral material, is almost 1,000 pages in length.
The general impression given by Condon's summary is that there is nothing unusual or significant in the UFO phenomenon. This view gains significant additional weight from the fact that the Condon Report was reviewed by a panel of eminent scientists of the National Academy of Sciences who endorsed both the methodology and findings of the report (Condon & Gillmor, 1968, pp. vii-ix). We shall consider the NAS Panel Report only briefly in Section V.
The attitudes of scientists towards the UFO problem will be discussed in Section II. An overview of the Condon Report then follows in Section III. In Section IV, we compare Condon's "Summary of the Study" with the six staff summaries, and then proceed to compare each staff summary with the case summaries on which it was based. Section V is devoted to a discussion of scientific methodology, and Section VI is given to a discussion of the present analysis. At the time of revising this article in accordance with the referee's report, I have taken the opportunity to add a short postscript based on material released by the Central Intelligence Agency after this analysis was first prepared.
Some readers may be interested in reading other reviews of the Condon Report. Soon after the Report was published, Icarus carried two reviews, one by McDonald (1969) and the other by Chiu (1969). Hynek (1972) and Jacobs (1975), in their books on the UFO problem, each devote a chapter to the Condon Report.